Cisco 5 Run Chase 7-27-2012

Just the 1st game here. Will post the rest when I get home in a couple hours. Cisco just let me know that he has dumped the no plays on dogs +150 filter so we are too.

G1 CHI Cubs +1.5 vs. STL Cardinals

Time To Answer Some Questions

Before I get to the few questions I just want to clarify for those who need/want it. If a G2,G3, or G4 is posted and it’s not followed by “(from month/day) then the preceding game is from the previous day.

Do any of the 4 Different Chases above change the team that we are chasing when their opponents change”

Yes they do in the 5 Run and 5 Run Under .470 Chase and in the certain variations of the Streak Chase. These chases fade a team so whoever they are playing are who we are betting.

After the WWW; L; SSS of the streak chase system, does the G1 have to be the same situation of the original WWW. If the WWW is 3 wins as a visitor, must the G1 to start the chase be also as a visitor?

Yes it does. The Streak Chase can essentially be broken down into four seperate chases: Home Streak Win, Road Streak Win, Home Streak Loss, and Road Streak Loss. All we’re looking for is a streak to fit into one of these four categories.

Since there hasnt been any games since b4 the ASG there hasnt been any streaks, so will you wait until teams win or lose 3 games?

That I will. Last year I did not and it resulted in (I believe) two losses. One loss could’ve been saved with the RL filter (wasn’t inserted until August) but still, no need to even be in that situation.

If there are any more questions let me have’em and hopefully I can answer them for you. And hopefully I’ll be able to do it a little bit quicker as I’m almost done doing a full revamp of my yard. Which by the way is beginning to look pretty awesome.

Chase System Rules

I should of put these up earlier but because there’s not much to them I kept putting them off because I knew it wouldn’t take much to lookup/write up. Apologize for the delay.

The rules for the 5 Run and Home Favorite System were taken from posts of Cisco on a forum or from one of his spread sheets. The RPI Chase rules were found on Bettor2Win’s RPI Chase thread on Covers. The Streak Chase system is my own.

5 Run System

This is a four game chase. I don’t count a loss until I lose four games. The chase begins when a team wins by 5 or more runs. These are the teams we will be betting against. We wait two games after the team enters the chase. If the team wins again by 5+ runs at any time we skip another two games but keep the progression going. If a team’s win percentage is under .470 the day of the first play then they get categorized as an under .470 play (This is different than how Cisco categorizes under .470 plays. He does it the day of the 5 run win). Filter: Play RL +1.5 with underdogs. Favorites are money line plays. Filter: Any underdogs with ML odds of +150 or more will be a no play. We will wait for the next game.

Home Favorite Chase

Play on a +.470 team that has lost their last 3 or more home games as a favorite of -110 or more and is again favored at home by -110 or more. I chase for up to 4 games. The alternate version of this chase is bypassing the +.470 filter.

RPI Chase
SYSTEM

The premise here is simple. Good teams Beat bad teams more often than bad teams beat good teams. This a chase system.

RELATIVE POWER INDEX (RPI)

The RPI tends to tighten as the season progresses, so post all star game I use different numbers.

1. This is a series chase. I DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series. IDK why, but I don’t. You can if you like.
2. How to pick series. Pre all star game: check the upcoming series. We will use tomorrows games/series as an example. Check the ESPN RPI rankings.
3. If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
4. If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.

FILTERS

1. If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.
2. Losing streaks. Big losing streaks by better RPI team, don’t play series.
3. Teams going in obvious opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a Point or max 2 on the RPI.
4. Injuries. Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak last year. Go figure, so watch.Another note, in a 4 game series, if, and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game of a four game series, start the series over the next day as a new series. Basically, we would be banking they will win one of the next 3 as well.
5. Teams bellow the .500 mark need to be evaluated before a play is created.
6. Season ends the week of the August 20th.

JUICE

This system does come with some juice, but remember a WIN is WIN. Use LABBY and MARTINGALE …depended on the outcome of a four game series. First game. LABBY will make up for losses, so I advise using the LABBY. Also, with the high juice in this system, you can only play one other system.

Streak Chase System

1. Wait for a home or road, win or lose, streak of at least three games.
2. Once the streak ends, skip three games.
3. Play the fourth game to match the original streak in a four game chase.
4. Play all dogs on the moneyline.

Answering Questions

Brian-
Yes, I do shut things down at the end of August. Similarly to how we counted chases that we could fit in before the break, I will do the same thing with games we can play without going into September.

Russell-
I skip three games once the streak of whatever ends. So on a small win streak we have WWW (3 wins); L(1 loss and end of streak); SSS(3 Skipped games); then G1.

For the RPI chases I am merely a vessel of Bettor2Win over at Covers. This is his chase and he came up with the criteria. I don’t remember the full criteria off the top of my head but essentially its just comparing two twos RPIs (given to them by ESPN) and if one team is significantly better then play them. There are other filters of course that’s just what I can remember. The rules for the system are probably somewhere in the 100 pages of crap on his thread. It’s not all crap, but the majority of the bantering and bickering is.

Thought there was a third question but I guess that’s it. Going to post the Streak Chase plays tonight. Going to be gone all day tomorrow and want to make sure those are up. Results from the Fourth are already posted. Don’t want to manually look up the other systems but I should have a couple minutes in the morning to get those posted. Apologize in advance if they’re not formatted.